Regardless of these “stumbling blocks,” we can see in Europe, where most of the strongest willed nationalists reside, borders are breaking down. And with the emergence of level heads in Islam, the step by step process of being cured of the disease of separation will move forward. Yes, there may be a few relapses, but the tide of history is moving forward in the recognition that the family of man lives in a very small house that needs to be properly cared for with everyone healthy, happy and hopeful of a safe future.
1. The United States model: Out of an initial few; a central government was formed. The new central government asserted authority over the few with limited success but with each additional state accrued more power to itself. Consolidated power to become a strong central government, constitutionally sharing power with the states; but for sake of argument, less and less. Human rights protected by the Bill of Rights. It is very hard to change the constitution. Three balancing divisions of central government.
2. The EU/UN model: A weak central government competing for power with the constituent parts. Each new state retains its independent government. Strong Legislative and Judicial but weak executive. The Legislative and Judicial bodies can effect changes in the constituent states, but the executive powers of foreign policy and defense are atrophied; little more than ceremonial. Human rights are protected in theory and tradition but practically by a mediocre constitution.
3. The Soviet Union/Peoples' Republic model: A strong hegemonic power asserting control over its clearly defined sphere of influence as recognized by hegemonic powers of equal influence. Any new states added have very little control over their internal affairs. The central government controls the state and the Legislative and Judicial are weak compared to the Executive. Constitutional protections and Law enforcement are directly affected by the Executive. Human Rights are protected but often diluted.
Any combination of the three is possible, including all three models competing in a hegemonic relationship with each other.
Nations are like families. You have some very prosperous and successful, some pitifully slow; but most are just roaming the middle going from day to day – the middle class of nation states.
A global “group hug” will not likely come all at once. Neighboring nations have issues with each other. Just ask Mexico about the US and China about Japan; Greece about Turkey. But it will come in increments sooner rather than later. After all, if ALL of Germany's neighbors can get along with Germany then the other relationships will work out too, eventually.
The "hegemonic" model requires on state powerful enough to provide the impetus to motivate the uity in the group. In today's world that impetus is likely to be economic rather than power, though power cannot be ruled out as an option. The "hegemony" may fade in time much like in the United States where in the beginning a few states held power over the smaller, but over time, that power was dispersed throughout the nation.
The regional hegemonic model, (each region initially centered on one causal state) with 6 or 7 hegemonic powers made up of the present "traditional spheres" will certainly come first. Some prosperous spheres will form first: North America (Canada-USA-Mexico) and Europe (West-East-Russia); with the middle class next: East Asia (Sino-Korea-Nippon), and the Indus region (India-Nepal-Southeast Asia) forming to counter balance the Sino-Korea-Nippon group with Latin America centered on Brazil following along. The Islamic group (Middle East-Central Asia-North Africa?) will take a bit longer and be a little trickier, and Turkey has to decide where to jump. The poor family of Africa, much like the Germanic states in Europe will take the longest but could potentially be strongest.
Some of these unions will be, perhaps more out of survival than desire: Russia with Europe as it will be otherwise caught between a resource desperate Sino group and an Islamic Central Asia. Japan will go with China as Taiwan and Korea fall in line and the USA bows to China’s wishes. Egypt and the North Africa Islamic states will join the Middle East, dividing Africa in half.
One very interesting possibility is that Mexico and the Hispanic migrant population in the USA could be the glue that binds all of North and South America into a single unit. If this happens, Europe and Africa could quickly join them. Then the single world government would be all but complete.
These powers will make alliances for their own benefits and may squabble like neighboring families but they will set up fences and agree not to steal each other’s apples. The beginnings of a global nation.
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